Comparison of land use spatial model for economy zone and urban growth expansion forecast according to “Phuket Smart City” development plan

Abstract

Comparison of land use spatial model for economy zone and urban growth expansion forecast according to “Phuket Smart City” development plan. It identifies the most suitable spatial model for forecasting the expansion of economic zones and urban areas in Phuket Province.
Three spatial models Land Change Modeler (LCM), Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS), and Modules for Land Use Change Simulations (MOLUSCE) were evaluated using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery of Phuket from 2016 to 2020 as the base years for accuracy assessment against land use data for 2024. The findings reveal that the MOLUSCE model exhibited the highest accuracy among the three models, with a precision of 90 percent, followed by the FLUS model with 70 percent, and the LCM model with 67.4 percent. Subsequently, the MOLUSCE model was employed to project the growth of economic zone and urban areas in Phuket for the year 2028. The projection indicates that by 2028, Phuket is expected to experience a growth of 29.93 square kilometers in economic zone and urban areas, representing a 5.73 percent increase, with an accuracy rate of 85.4 percent.