APPLICATION OF POULTRY DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUE FOR TRANSPORT COST MANAGEMENT.

Abstract

          Poultry breeding retail and wholesale business had met customers’ expectations.There was no provision for advance production and order some sensons had large quantity ofcustomer orders, and some suppliers could not produce the goods to meet the customers'needs in time. This was lost opportunity. Transport costs were also increased since thedelivery sizes were small. In other times, the production was higher than order demand.Hence the inventory cost was increased. To solve this problem, a forecasting technique wasapplied to forecast the demand and plan poulity production to manage transport cost.The result shows that the moving-average forecasting technique was close to the realsales and it devide 4 periods of Egg-laying duckling. In July 2019, the poulity demandforecasting was 138 UNIT. The lowest MAPE was 23.81 percent, the EOQ of Egg-layingduckling was 47 per time. This would decrease the cost by 36 percent. The ROP was 18.Young egg-laying duck. In July, the poulity demand forecasting was 138, and the lowestMAPE was 31.64 percent. the EOQ of Young egg-laying duck was 34 per time, the cost wasdecreased for 6 percent, the ROP of was 10. Muscovy duckling. In July 2019, the poulitydemand forecasting was 129,the lowest MAPE was 22.92 percent. the EOQ of Muscovyduckling was 45 per time, the cost was decreased for 33 percent, the ROP of was 17. Egglayingchick. In July, the poulity demand forecasting was 107 and the lowest MAPE was 6.13percent., the EOQ of Egg-laying chick was 42 per time, the cost was decreased for 26percent, the ROP was 14. There are 3 periods of Quail of Moving average in July 2019, thepoulity demand forecasting was 300, and the lowest MAPE was 16.56 percent. the EOQ was77 per time, the cost was decreased for 60 percent and the ROP was 48. Finally the poultryfarm found the information of forecasting the tolerance reduce as 28.66% by averaging.The forecasting implementation was effective. However, other forecasting modelsshould be studied and evaluated before actual selection and implementation. This could beexecutive's approach to consider in a businesss to increase efficiency and decrease transportcosts.