Bamboo in the Crosswinds: Thailand's 21st Century Hedging Strategy Amidst Sino-US Rivalry

Abstract

This paper investigates how Thailand is adapting its traditional "bamboo diplomacy" to navigate the intensified geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China. As a long-standing U.S. treaty ally with deep and expanding economic ties to China, Thailand occupies a pivotal but precarious position in the Indo-Pacific. This research addresses the central question: How has Thailand's foreign policy evolved into a modern hedging strategy in the 21st century? Through a qualitative analysis of policy documents, defense procurement data, and diplomatic engagements, this paper argues that Thailand's contemporary approach is a multi-layered hedging strategy characterized by three core pillars: (1) security diversification to maintain the U.S. alliance while building defense ties with China; (2) calculated economic alignment with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) while seeking alternative partnerships; and (3) a renewed emphasis on ASEAN centrality as a multilateral buffer against great power pressure. The findings suggest that modern Thai hedging is not passive neutrality but an active, pragmatic, and increasingly complex statecraft designed to maximize autonomy and national interest in a contested geopolitical landscape