Beyond the Bamboo: Thailand's Geopolitical Tightrope Between Great Power Hedging and the Myanmar Mess

Abstract

This paper looks at the great pressure on Thailand's traditional foreign policy. This pressure comes from two major challenges happening at once: the growing U.S.-China rivalry and the internal conflict in neighboring Myanmar since 2021. Thailand's historical "bamboo diplomacy," which has become a modern "hedging" (or risk-spreading) strategy, is being put to the test. This article asks: How does Thailand's need to manage the immediate security crisis in Myanmar change or support its hedging strategy between Washington and Beijing? This paper argues that the Myanmar crisis is a small-scale test for Thai hedging. It shows that when group efforts like ASEAN fail, Thai policy falls back on a practical, national-interest-first approach, focusing on border security and not interfering. This, however, creates friction with its traditional U.S. ally, while pragmatically (if uncomfortably) aligning with China's "handsoff" policy. This makes its delicate balancing act even harder.